7 things we learnt from the 2026 Private Credit Investor Forum

Published: 26 February 2026

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  1. Stress can be healthy.  The conference took place during a period when a combination of factors are conspiring to put private credit under the spotlight. An uncertain macro-environment, the potential for AI disruption and an uptick in redemptions by retail investors are all making the market more uncertain than it has been at any point in the past decade. Yet the prevailing mood was not alarmist. Many participants described the current period as a “healthy stress test” that will ultimately reinforce discipline and help investors to better differentiate between managers. After years of strong inflows and broadly supportive credit conditions, more scrutiny will likely prove a useful corrective that promotes sustainable growth over the long term.
  2. Underwriting remains the defining edge. Speakers repeatedly stressed that private credit’s resilience depends on rigorous diligence, direct borrower engagement, and an instinctive scepticism by both LPs and GPs towards reported numbers. In that context, the ability to challenge assumptions, validate data, and maintain a clear picture of underlying cash flows becomes central to credit selection and managing downside risk. Sole-lender transactions, transparency, stronger documentation and proactive approaches towards workout were seen as key ways that private credit can offer a better control position for credit investors.
  3. AI disruption in software isn’t all downside risk. The discussion of software and AI disruption was anchored on the notion that outcomes will vary widely by business model. Participants highlighted several differentiators they expect to see affect outcomes for loans to software companies including position in the technology stack, proprietary data advantages, regulatory context, the degree of mission-critical service embedment, and customer diversification. Some even ventured that they expect AI to drive productivity gains, product enhancements and new revenue opportunities at the top firms.  The task for LPs is not to avoid software exposure, but to underwrite it with sharper segmentation and deeper diligence.
  4. US and European corporate lending are distinct propositions. US deal volumes continue to outstrip Europe (and everywhere else) by a big margin but participants pointed to tighter spreads, higher leverage, and heavy software exposure as defining features of many direct lending portfolios. These dynamics contributed to a common view that US corporate direct lending has a smaller margin for error than elsewhere, putting manager selection and due diligence to the fore for LPs allocated to this sector. In contrast, Europe was portrayed as a materially different credit ecosystem to the US, with less acute competition for deals, stronger lender protections, fewer AI related challenges all against a backdrop of continued bank retrenchment. European allocations therefore offer LPs access to structurally different return dynamics and shouldn’t be solely seen through a narrow geographic diversification lens.
  5. ABF emerging as the clearest growth engine for 2026. Managers described rapid AUM expansion, some as much as 50% in 2025,  riven by structural demand for capital across consumer credit, specialty finance, and real assets. For LPs, collateral-backed structures, more visible cash flows, and lower reliance on corporate leverage cycles are also attractive in the current environment with many indicating their ABF allocations are likely to rise further.
  6. Retailisation will remain a key question for institutional LPs. LP views were sharply divided on whether retail capital strengthens private credit by broadening the investor base or complicates it by introducing potential model conflicts. Supporters argued that retail access is overdue and that semi-permanent vehicles can provide a more diversified capital base. Critics questioned whether institutional and retail models can coexist comfortably within the same platform given different liquidity expectations, fee structures, and portfolio construction requirements. Several participants suggested managers may eventually need to choose a lane or build clearly segregated platforms to avoid conflicts and preserve institutional confidence.
  7. Beyond the ‘golden age’ of private credit.  The conference suggested that private credit is entering a more segmented, disciplined phase that many LPs consider a good place for the asset class overall.  Private credit’s risk and returns profile has sat in a very attractive place for the past few years and been supported by strong economic and structural tailwinds.  These factors have led to a significant expansion in the borrower and investor base.  The next few years are going to see more challenging conditions for growth that will likely make it clearer to LPs what the drivers of performance are for individual managers and strategies.  In this next phase, the managers most likely to succeed are those who maintain underwriting rigour, invest in their process, and articulate clear strategic choices to their LPs about where and how they compete.