Trump Boom or Trump Bust?
Organized by AIMA Canada in collaboration with CFA Montréal and IFSID Institute
"TRUMP BOOM or TRUMP BUST?”
Challenges ahead for the institutional investing community
A luncheon event, Tuesday, June 27th, 2017
Club Saint James
1145 Avenue Union
Background: Majors trends & developing events
-- High income inequality, low wage growth, and high household debt levels are a tailwind to populism.
-- Investors fear that populism will overwhelm twentieth century institutions, in particular:
- Global commitment to globalization and free trade;
- U.S. commitment to being a “defender of last resort;”
- European commitment to peaceful integration
-- On the other hand, investors hope that the populist threat forces policymakers to react to the low growth environment with reforms and fiscal stimulus. It is this hope that has motivated market performance since the U.S. election.
On June 27, several of these themes will be up for reassessment:
- Trump will have completed his first 100 days;
- French presidential and legislative elections will be over;
- German election season will be in full swing;
- President Trump will come to Europe for G7 summit;
- Relations between China and the new U.S. administration will have greater clarity;
- Brexit negotiations will begin in May.
Given the above - what will the world look like on June 27, 2017 ?
Implications for the investment community
- Asset Allocation Strategies in a world of paradigm shifts
- All weather strategies? Long term vs short term
- If politics is here to stay as an investment methodology, what should investors do?
Politics & Investing: From Risk To Fundamental Strategy
Panel Discussion Format
Moderator: Mario Therrien (Senior Vice-President, External Portfolio Management – Public Markets, CDPQ)
Questions are pre-selected with speakers & panelists
-- Setting the table: two speakers
- Marko Papic (Chief Geopolitical Strategy BCA)
Global risks & evolution of populist and its consequences/impact on global investment climate
- Yanick Desnoyers (Deputy Chief Economist, CDPQ)
-- Responses: investing strategies/scenarios (Moderator animates panel with preselected questions)
- Pablo Calderini (CIO, Graham Capital - A Global Macro manager)
All weather investing in the volatile Trump Era ?
- Chen Zhao (Former Co-Head of Macro Research, Brandywine Global Investment Management)
Moderator invites questions from the floor